In the Likely Event

Saint Louis: November 2011. Izzy boards a plane in Saint Louis and finds a handsome young man sitting in her window seat. He offers to move, but Izzy admits that she dislikes flying and encourages him to keep the seat. Izzy learns that he is Nathaniel “Nate” Phelan and is flying for the first time in order to begin basic training at Fort Benning. Izzy explains that her name is short for Isabeau and that it comes from a movie called Ladyhawke, a tragic romantic movie from the 1980s.

When the flight attendants go through the safety presentation, Izzy realizes that she and Nate are sitting next to an emergency exit, which makes her nervous. To distract herself, she asks Nate about his split lip and bruised face. He brushes it off, so she changes the subject by asking about the book he is reading. Nate explains that he’s working his way down a list of books that one should read by the age of 30. Nate tells her that he wants to be an English teacher, but his family doesn’t have the money for college tuition, so he joined the military to take advantage of the associated tuition program. During takeoff, Nate allows Izzy to hold his hand as he distracts her with fun questions. Suddenly, one of the engines begins to make an odd noise, and the wing bursts into flames.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Nate’s team loads the congressional delegates into four SUVs for the ride to the embassy. Nate makes a couple of comments about the risks that Izzy is taking by being in Afghanistan. She suggests that they have other things to talk about, but Nate shuts her down while expressing his outrage at the changes in her life, such as her decision to work for a politician and the fact that she no longer goes by Izzy, but Isa. Webb asks Nate one more time if he should bring in someone else to protect Izzy, but Nate refuses again. Nate later has a conversation with his friend Torres about his feelings for Izzy, then learns that the delegation’s itinerary has changed, adding a visit in the north that doesn’t fit with the original plan to help a girls’ chess team from the south to leave the country.

Saint Louis: November 2011. With a crash imminent, the pilot instructs the passengers to brace for impact. The plane begins a frightening descent. Nate tries to calm Izzy. When they hit, Izzy is thrown forward, and her hearing is muffled as Nate moves to open the emergency exit door. They’re in the Missouri River. Nate and Izzy leave the plane and help other passengers out. Izzy gives her and Nate’s life jackets to other passengers. Nate assesses Izzy’s injuries and realizes that she has a concussion. He tells her that they need to get to the shore, then helps her to jump from the wing.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Izzy is now in the suite to which she has been assigned at the embassy and is having a phone conversation with her fiancé, Jeremy. They’re arguing because she has asked for space, but he is pressuring her to forgive him for something that he has done. Nate knocks on the door, so Izzy hangs up on Jeremy and begins arguing with Nate. He stresses again that she shouldn’t be in Afghanistan, and she accuses him of disappearing on her. Nate tries to explain that he disappeared because of his role in the Special Forces. Nate then explains how the protection detail will work and stresses that Izzy should call him and his team by their color-related code names. Nate also wants to know why Izzy has added two more visits to the itinerary, and she tells him that the decision is due to her sister, Serena.

Saint Louis: November 2011. Nate helps Izzy to swim to shore. She complains of pain under her ribs and in her shoulder. Once Izzy is settled on the shore, Nate returns to the water to help other passengers. When he comes back to Izzy, she is beginning to show symptoms of her concussion. Nate asks her some questions to keep her awake. When the paramedics arrive, Nate tells them that he is Izzy’s husband so that he will be allowed to ride in the ambulance with her. Later, however, Nate regrets his choice, because the hospital wants him to fill out forms for which he has no answers. Meanwhile Izzy undergoes surgery for a ruptured spleen, while Nate needs nothing more than a few stitches for a wound on his forehead. Izzy’s sister Serena arrives and speaks to Nate before representatives from the army arrive and take him to catch another plane for Fort Benning.

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. The next morning, Izzy explains to Nate that Serena is in Afghanistan on assignment in her role as a photojournalist. Serena’s assignment is supposed to last six months, and she still has another month to go, but given the current withdrawal, Izzy is hoping to convince her to go home sooner. Nate argues that it is too dangerous for Izzy to search for Serena, but she insists that the only reason she came to Afghanistan was to find her sister.

Nate leads Izzy to the helicopters that they plan to take to their first stop on her itinerary. Nate realizes that Izzy is still a nervous flyer and cannot use her earphones with the helmet she must wear, so Nate gives her his AirPods, aware that listening to music helps her to calm her fears. When they return to the embassy later, Nate and Izzy check the day’s news filings in hopes of seeing something from Serena that will reveal her location. Unfortunately, there isn’t anything, but Nate assures Izzy that they’ll keep looking until they find something.