The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 1996

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Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Introduction-Part 1, Chapter 5

Part 2, Chapters 6-9

Parts 2-3, Chapters 10-12

Key Figures

Themes

Index of Terms

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Introduction-Part 1, Chapter 5Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Part 1: “Seasons”

Introduction, Chapter 1 Summary: “Winter Comes Again”

The opening chapter of The Fourth Turning serves as a broad introduction to the basic principles that the authors will lay out. They begin by pointing out that America, at the time of the book’s writing in 1997, felt as though it was unraveling. Despite it being a time of relative peace and comfort, trust in the nation’s institutions was eroding and individualism was strong. Those characteristics also describe a third turning—what the authors refer to as an unraveling era. Strauss and Howe explain that four turnings, or shifts in the mood of the nation, together comprise an 80-to-100-year period and constitute a cycle that has repeated itself over the last five centuries. These recurring turnings include an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism (a high), a passionate era of spiritual upheaval (an awakening), the aforementioned unraveling era, and a decisive crisis era during which a new civic order replaces the old one (a crisis).

The concept of time plays a critical role not just in turnings, but also in human life and generational theory. Strauss and Howe explain that humans have developed three ways of thinking about time: chaotic, cyclical, and linear. According to the authors, “[T]he first was the dominant view of primitive man, the second of ancient and traditional civilizations, and the third of the modern West, especially America” (8). Chaotic time lacks a moral dimension because history has no path and events appear to happen randomly and without meaning. Cyclical time originated when ancient humans first began to link lunar and planetary events with human activities such as harvesting and birthing. The acceptance of linear time, a story with an absolute beginning and an absolute end, came along centuries later, but it signaled that humanity and civilizations could now progress.

While linear time has a great strength in that it has provided mankind with the idea of self-improvement, it dismisses the recurring aspects of time and history. Strauss and Howe argue that “[W]ithout some notion of historical recurrence, no one can meaningfully discuss the past at all” (13). The authors reject the strict concept of linear time by pointing out that time is actually the measurement of cyclicality itself. The two related cyclical rhythms that formulate the basis for their argument correspond to the length of a long human life (what the ancients called the “saeculum,”) and to the four phases of a human life (the roughly 20-year periods of time that we call “generations”).

The authors close their introductory chapter by discussing the connection between the saeculum, the four phases of the human life cycle (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood), and the four collective archetypes, or personas, that generations develop through their shared location in history and in the turning in which they were born. These four generational archetypes are the prophet, the nomad, the hero, and the artist. Those born during a high are part of a prophet generation, those born during an awakening become a nomad generation, those born during an unraveling belong to a hero generation, and those born during a crisis become an artist generation.

Part 1, Chapter 2 Summary: “Seasons of Time”

Beginning with a discussion concerning how the ancient Etruscans originated the idea of a saeculum as a measure of time, Chapter 2 explores the seasonal and cyclical nature of time and history. Strauss and Howe explain that all ancient rituals in history that acknowledge time or seasons have the same characteristics: Cycles are represented by a circle, symbolizing unbreakable recurrence; each circle is divided into phases, typically four (30); each circle of time has a great moment of discontinuity (31); each circle requires that time be resumed at the moment of each creation (32); and each circle is presumed to repeat itself, in the same sequence, over a similar period of time (32). The measurement of time as circular can take many different forms, but the circle of the human lifespan is foundational to all others. The authors argue that this is because “[T]he natural life span is probably the only circle that mankind can neither avoid nor alter” (33).

Using research from a number of other historians, Strauss and Howe explain that war and peace have formed a cycle that recurs within a saeculum as well. The saeculum of war and peace cycles similarly to the saeculum of the human life span, but it is primarily two-phased rather than four. This saeculum includes a cycle-ending war—one with “decisive social and political consequences” (37). The ending era of war, upheaval, and turmoil has been called a revolution in the past, but the authors argue that crisis is a better word. Within the saeculum, an awakening also takes place, serving as the other solstice to the crisis. Strauss and Howe explain that it “is to crisis as summer is to winter, love to strife” (41).

Chapter 2 concludes with a chronicle of the crises and awakenings in Anglo-American history over the last five centuries. The cycle of the saeculum in the 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th centuries was originally longer, with the climax point of each crisis and awakening ranging from 90 to 105 years apart. However, the timing of the American Civil War altered this path, and the 19th- and 20th-century saeculums took on an 80-year span. The crises include the War of the Roses (1459-1487), the Armada Crisis (1569-1594), the Glorious Revolution (1675-1704), the American Revolution (1773-1794), the Civil War (1860-1865), and the Great Depression and World War II Crisis (1929-1946). The Anglo-American awakening eras include the Protestant Reformation (1517-1542), the Puritan Awakening (1621-1649), the Great Awakening (1727-1746), the Transcendental Awakening (1822-1844), the Third Great Awakening (1886-1908), and the Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984).

Part 1, Chapter 3 Summary: “Seasons of Life”

Chapter 3 explores time as it relates to human life and to collective generations. Throughout history, mankind has always associated the four phases of life with the four natural seasons: childhood with spring, young adulthood with summer, midlife with fall, and elderhood with winter. Each of the phases lasts roughly 20 years and carries a specific social role. Childhood, for example, lasts until age 20, and its social roles are acquiring values and receiving nurture. Young adulthood (ages 21-41) carries the role of serving institutions and testing values, while midlife (ages 42-62) has the role of managing institutions and applying values. In addition to elderhood, Strauss and Howe argue that it makes sense to add the fifth phase of late-elderhood because so many people are now living past the age of 84. The respective social roles of these last phases are leading institutions and transferring values, and receiving comfort and remembering values.

According to the authors, “the seasonality of the life cycle is what makes possible the creation of generations” (58). The prescribed social role of each generation transforms when a great event or a crystallizing moment takes place within the saeculum. These great events, which have occurred in every Anglo-American saeculum, also provide each generation with a collective persona. In this way, “[E]ach generation is not only shaped by history but also shapes later history” (62). To understand generational change and generational personas, one must first identify generations. Strauss and Howe argue that the length of a generation should approximate the length of a phase of life (65). They also suggest that three attributes be present: a common location in history, common beliefs and behavior, and a perceived membership in the generation.

The generational personas are what the authors refer to as archetypes, and they serve as collective biographies of each generation. Over 570 Anglo-American years, historians have identified 24 different generations. All of these generations fit one of four archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero, or artist (70). When applied to the four turnings of a saeculum, the four archetypes create a generational constellation that always repeats itself. In each crisis era, prophets enter elderhood, nomads are in midlife, heroes are in young adulthood, and artists are in childhood. In the saeculum’s other solstice, the awakening, heroes enter elderhood, artists enter midlife, prophets enter young adulthood, and nomads are in childhood (71). It is in this way that generations are both shaped by history and shape future history.

Strauss and Howe explain that a generation is like an individual because it “is shaped by the nurture it receives in childhood and the challenges it faces coming of age” (73-74). Because turnings and the generational constellation recur in the same order throughout a saeculum, the nurture an archetype receives and the challenges it faces are always similar as well. Prophet generations are indulged post-crisis children, become narcissistic crusaders during an awakening, then moralistic midlifers, and wise elders during the next crisis (84). Nomad generations are unprotected children during an awakening, become alienated young adults in the unraveling, become pragmatic midlife leaders in the crisis, and tough elders in the high. Hero generations are protected post-awakening children during an unraveling, become young adult teamworkers during a crisis, hubristic midlifers in the high, and powerful elders in the next awakening. Artist generations are overprotected children during a crisis, then turn into sensitive young adults during a high, indecisive midlife leaders during an awakening, and emerge as empathic elders during an unraveling (84).

Part 1, Chapter 4 Summary: “Cycles of History”

Chapter 4 explores cycles of history and how archetypes and turnings have aligned to shape the generational constellation in saeculums throughout history. The chapter also provides an extensive overview of all seven Anglo-American saeculums dating back to the 15th century. The overview includes detailed explanations of each turning and each of the 24 generations that they produced, from the Arthurian and Humanist Generations in the 15th century to Generation X and the Millennial Generation in the 20th century. Strauss and Howe begin the chapter with an anecdote concerning the presidents featured on Mount Rushmore, who respectively represent each of the four archetypes: Washington as nomad, Jefferson as hero, Theodore Roosevelt as artist, and Lincoln as prophet. The authors explain that America has required all four archetypes to grow, prosper, and survive because “[E]ach archetype has produced its own greatness, its own special virtues and competencies” (91).

Expanding further on the archetypal personas, the authors describe the principal endowments and characteristics of each, along with examples of prominent people. Prophets, for example, exhibit coming-of-age passion and principled elder stewardship, and their endowments include vision, values, and religion (96). A primary characteristic of prophets is that they are indulged children who become protective parents. Nomads demonstrate hands-on, get-it-done leadership in midlife years, and their endowments are in the domains of liberty, survival, and honor (96). A primary characteristic of nomads is that they are underprotected children who become overprotective parents. We remember heroes best for their coming-of-age triumphs and hubristic elder achievements (97). The principal endowments of heroes are in the domains of community, affluence, and technology, and a primary characteristic is that they are protected children who become indulgent parents. Artists are most known for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership (97). The principal endowments of artists are pluralism, expertise, and due process, and a primary characteristic is that they are overprotected children who become underprotective parents.

Chapter 4 also looks closely at turnings, the four eras within a saeculum in which a characteristic social mood develops. Like archetypes and constellations, the four turnings always come in the same order: high, awakening, unraveling, and crisis. Comparing the turnings to nature’s seasons, Strauss and Howe argue that “[A]wakenings and crises are the saecular solstices, summer and winter,” while “[H]ighs and unravelings are the saecular equinoxes, spring and autumn, each coursing a path directionally opposed to the other” (100). Many other rhythms in history are cyclical within the saeculum, and each has a cause-and-effect relationship with the four turnings. According to the authors, some of these cycles include politics, foreign affairs, the economy, family and society, population, social disorder, and culture.

Part 1, Chapter 5 Summary: “Gray Champions”

The brief final chapter of Part 1 explains the concept of the “gray champion.” The authors begin the chapter with an anecdote dating back to 1689, nearly a century before the American Revolution. As British troops marched through Boston to crush any thought of colonial self-rule, they were stopped by a solitary elderly man who refused to let them pass. A metaphorical gray champion such as this has reappeared near the end of each saeculum throughout history. Strauss and Howe argue that these gray champions “[a]re elder expressions of the prophet archetype. And their arrival into old age herald[s] a new constellation of generations” (141). The gray champions are symbolic in that their arrivals mark a moment of darkness, adversity, and peril signaling the climax of a fourth turning. The elder prophet, midlife nomad, young adult hero, and child artist have aligned in the same order during each fourth turning.

Introduction-Part 1, Chapter 5 Analysis

The Fourth Turning begins with an introductory chapter titled “Winter Comes Again.” The chapter serves as a very broad introduction to the arguments that authors Strauss and Howe will make throughout their book. They begin by explaining their concept of turnings, the different eras during which “people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future” (3). The introductory chapter provides a precise explanation for what turnings are, how the four turnings fit into a saeculum, and how each turning (and the mood that accompanies it) develops into a specific era such as the American High of the 1950s. The chapter also provides a precise explanation for the authors’ generational theory, in which every generation develops one of four collective personas depending on the turning of their birth: prophet, hero, nomad, and artist.

The book’s overarching theme of time emerges midway through the introductory chapter, with the authors arguing that “[O]ver the millennia, man has developed three ways of thinking about time: chaotic, cyclical, and linear” (8). While time itself passes regardless of how we conceptualize it, our ideas about the nature of time structure our understanding of human life and history, ultimately influencing both. As the authors explain, in chaotic time, history has no path and events happen randomly without meaning. Cyclical time originated later, when man first began to link nature’s cycles of planetary events with human activity cycles. The concept of linear time originated still later, but it eventually changed the world because time was now seen as unidirectional, a “story with an absolute beginning and an absolute end” (9). With the adoption of linear time, societies and mankind could conceive of themselves progressing and improving. However, the authors suggest that we need to return to the concept of cyclical time in order to fully understand the nature of historical recurrence.

Over the four chapters in Part 1 of the book, titled “Seasons,” Strauss and Howe continue their examination of time as a primary theme, but they also explore the seasonality of life and the cyclicality of history. In Chapter 2, “Seasons of Time,” they introduce the primary concept of their research with the term “saeculum,” a measurement of time borrowed from the ancient Etruscans. The belief in the saeculum is rooted in the seasonality and circularity of time. The authors make use of symbolism in Chapter 2, noting that various ancient civilizations have represented human life and history with a symbolic circle. This symbolism shows not only the recurring aspect of time, but also the way it restarts following a moment of discontinuity. The moment of discontinuity in the symbolic circle of time is analogous to the fourth turning that “ends one saeculum and launches the next” (39). The authors use symbolism again in comparing the saeculum’s crisis era to nature’s winter solstice and the awakening era to the summer solstice.

In Chapter 3, “Seasons of Life,” the authors extend this symbolism to human life. They argue that “[W]e connect our life cycle with the seasons of nature not only to link our personal past to our personal future but also to locate our own life within a larger social drama” (54). Life is what they describe as a “fourscore journey”—a journey consisting of four phases analogous to nature’s four seasons. These four life phases carry their own social roles in the same way that each of nature’s seasons carries its own changes in weather. According to Strauss and Howe, “[T]he seasonality of the life cycle is what makes possible the creation of generations” (58).

Strauss and Howe continue to explore their two primary themes—time and seasonality—in Chapter 4, now in the context of history. The chapter begins with an anecdote concerning the fact that the four American Presidents featured on Mount Rushmore—Washington, Jefferson, Roosevelt, and Lincoln—are each a different generational archetype. Rather than chalking this up to coincidence, the authors stress the implied symbolism that all four archetypes have their own special virtues, and all four are needed in the saeculum, just as all four presidents had their own special virtues needed to make America what it has become. The chapter continues by discussing the generational constellations that have arisen throughout Anglo-American history, exploring how the “seasons” of history—that is, its turnings—influence and are influenced by the various archetypes: “[A]s generations age, they together form new archetypal constellations that alter every aspect of society, from government and the economy to culture and family life” (99).

Chapter 4 closes with an extensive overview titled “Seven Cycles of Generations and Turnings.” Strauss and Howe use this overview to simplify their terminology and concepts, beginning with a list of all seven Anglo-American saeculums and their beginning and ending dates. They then explain the four turnings and the four archetypes again, also providing a detailed sidebar of each turning within each saeculum and the specific generation that the turning produced. Part 1 of the book closes with a brief final chapter titled “Gray Champions,” in which the authors use the metaphorical term and anecdotes from previous crisis eras to explain how singular elders have often appeared in times of peril to rally and energize a nation in need. They explain that these old “priest-warrior” types have been “elder expressions of the prophet archetypes” (141). If we apply Strauss and Howe’s theories to the decades that have passed since the book’s publication—that is, the decades they project will constitute a “fourth turning”—several possible candidates for this figure emerge, including political figures like Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden. The extreme variation amongst these figures’ personalities and politics raises questions about whether gray champions always play the same role in a crisis.